A look at the state measures that could have national impact by boosting election turnout

Ballot measures across the country could have profound effects on people’s everyday lives from abortion access to criminal justice to the way they vote. Geoff Bennett explored the measures with Reid Wilson, founder and editor of Pluribus News, a digital media outlet tracking public policy in the states.
Geoff Bennett:
For more on how those Montana ballot measures fit into the national landscape, we’re joined now by Reid Wilson, founder and editor of Pluribus News. That’s a digital media outlet tracking public policy in the states.
It’s great to have you here.
Reid Wilson, Founder, Pluribus News:
Thanks for having me.
Geoff Bennett:
So Montana is considering a nonpartisan primary. What else are voters considering this year?
Reid Wilson:
Well, first of all, we’re seeing a lot of ballot initiatives that have to do with ranked-choice voting.
Now, that is, when you walk into a ballot, instead of choosing just one candidate, you can rank your best choices. The thinking on that is that voters will be able to prioritize the candidates who build the broadest coalition and, therefore, we will have fewer extremists from the right or the left and more people who work towards consensus and building those big coalitions.
We’re going to see those ballot measures in Colorado, Washington, D.C., Idaho, Nevada, and Oregon. Interestingly, in Alaska, voters are going to decide whether or not to repeal their existing ranked-choice voting. So it’s not exactly something that everybody absolutely loves, but this is the highest number of these ballot initiatives on ranked-choice voting that we have seen — we have ever seen on a single ballot.
Geoff Bennett:
On a separate matter, on the campaign trail, we have heard Donald Trump and Republicans warn against noncitizens voting in the election, which we should say is already forbidden in federal elections.
But now several states are considering ballot measures to prohibit what is already illegal?
Reid Wilson:
So, not necessarily.
So, there are ballot initiatives on the ballot in eight states controlled by Republican state legislatures, who effectively want people to be thinking about illegal immigration when they walk into the polling place. So federal voting by noncitizens is already illegal, but these states would make state and local elections off-limits to noncitizens as well.
There are a very small number of places in California, Vermont, Maryland that allow noncitizens to vote on things like school board races or city council races. These would preempt all of those in those particular states. But, then again, as you point out, in those states, there are no cities that allow noncitizens to vote.
Geoff Bennett:
Another major issue in this election is reproductive rights. And this year continues a trend we have seen since the fall of Roe, where states are voting on abortion access. What are you watching for?
Reid Wilson:
So, there are 10 states across the country where abortion rights are on the ballot. And they range from pretty red states like Missouri and Nebraska to swing presidential states, like Arizona and Nevada, and maybe even Florida is on that swing list.
And in every election since Roe v. Wade fell, when an abortion rights measure has been on the ballot, the pro-abortion rights position has passed, not just in blue states like California and Vermont, but in formerly swing states like Ohio and even in very conservative states like Kentucky and Kansas.
So I expect most of these abortion measures to pass. The one big wrinkle comes in Florida, where state law requires a constitutional amendment to get 60 percent of the vote. All the polls are showing that amendment right at 60, maybe just under. It’s a really high hurdle.
But those — the pro-abortion right side has raised more than $90 million to advance their cause there. That’s about nine times what opponents have raised. So they have got the money. Let’s see if they can find the votes.
Geoff Bennett:
Yes.
And Democrats are hoping that having abortion rights on the ballot will boost turnout in some of these states. Is that expectation justified, based on your reporting?
Reid Wilson:
So, yes and no. There are very few examples in which a ballot initiative brings enough people to the polls in a presidential election, which is already going to be a high turnout election, to swing it to make a difference.
The one real time when academics got to study this was back in 2004, when so many anti-same-sex marriage bans were on the ballot. Those measures might have pulled out 10,000, 15,000 votes in some of the real swing states. Remember, George W. Bush beat John Kerry in Ohio by just a few tens of thousands of votes.
Now, in this election, in which Vice President Harris and former President Trump are running so close, hey, 5,000, 10,000, 15,000 votes, that could be the difference between a President Harris or a second Trump term.
Geoff Bennett:
Reid Wilson of Pluribus News, great to have you here.
Reid Wilson:
Thanks so much.